Forecasting Eruptions at Volcanoes after Extended Repose
UCL | UoP | INGV-OV | SRC
Volcanic eruptions threaten one in ten people on Earth. The threat is under-estimated by exposed communities because most major eruptions occur from volcanoes that have been quiet for 100 years or more. The intervals are long enough for volcanoes to remain unmonitored. When unrest returns, forecasts of eruption often rely on data from hastily-installed monitoring networks. The forecasts contain large uncertainties, which hinder hazard mitigation and diminish the trust of vulnerable communities. A compelling social need therefore exists for reliable forecasts of eruptions at long-quiescent volcanoes, using emergency data obtained after the start of unrest.
Experiments
We conduct rock-physics experiments under pressures (to 100 MPa) and temperatures (to 400 °C) relevant to the shallow volcanic crust. We have developed a novel method to deform rocks in tension, whilst monitoring the deformation and acoustic emissions. We use the results of these experiments to verify our quantitative conditions for deterministic forecasts of bulk failure.
Theory
Volcanoes prior to eruption break in extension. Deformation is recorded by the movement of the ground and the occurrence of small magnitude seismicity. We are developing new physical models that transform the seismicity and deformation into natural stress and strain meters. By quantifying the stress-strain evolution in the crust, we aim to better constrain the regime of deformation in the crust and the proximity to bulk failure.
Forecasts
The theoretical models and physical understanding developed in this project is used to enhance current forecasting techniques. We combine the theory and laboroatry understanding to create a integrate forecasting method, based on physical processes rather than empirical methods. We use the data generated from our experiments, in combination with published volcano datasets, to test the practical implementation of our frorecasting methods.
About Us
FEVER is a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) funded project, established as a partnership between the University College London (UCL) and the University of Portsmouth (UoP), the Vesuvius Observatory (INGV-OV) and the Seismic Research Centre (SRC) at the University of West Indies.
